Rewiring Global Value Chains for Strategic Autonomy: Quantifying Direct-Indirect Supplier Exposure, Intermediary Centrality, and Scenario Resilience for Multinationals in Fragmented Trade Regimes

• Gaurij Mahajan

  Author

The study presents an index of international business risk which measures a firm-state system’s reliance on foreign suppliers through both direct contracts and indirect multi-tier intermediaries in global value chains. Utilizing a directed network with a shock-propagation routine based on input-output trade matrices, my index is able to isolate hidden choke-points. It reveals hidden exposure where complete reliance far exceeds bilateral trade shares. Also, it maps out intercession countries that relay shocks across sectors important for competitiveness and continuity. When applied to transatlantic and Asia-Europe trade, the framework shows how standard measures of concentration understate exposure in electronics, aerospace, batteries and medical devices, and that credible diversification means rewiring entire route networks rather than just re-balancing direct sourcing. These results will inform corporate sourcing, regionalization and friend-shoring strategies, while also providing policy guidance to bolster resilience investments and secure open strategic autonomy in the face of turbulent trade regimes.

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